| 引用本文: | 党晓玲,秦石桥,武小悦,等.复杂系统研制阶段可靠性增长的评估模型.[J].国防科技大学学报,1998,20(5):120-124.[点击复制] |
| Dang Xiaoling,Qin Shiqiao,Wu Xiaoyue,et al.A Reliability Growth Model for Complex System in Development Testing Program[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,1998,20(5):120-124[点击复制] |
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| 复杂系统研制阶段可靠性增长的评估模型 |
| 党晓玲, 秦石桥, 武小悦, 沙基昌 |
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(国防科技大学 系统工程与数学系 湖南 长沙 410073)
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| 摘要: |
| 针对复杂系统可靠性增长管理中采取延缓修正的故障修正方式, 提出了一种系统阶段可靠性增长的评估模型。在阶段k 应用Bayes定理, 得出系统可靠性的点估计、置信区间估计, 并对评估结果进行任务周期修正; 通过λk 的先验分布利用前面1,…, k-1 阶段试验的信息, 在相邻的两个阶段, 引入增长因子0<ηk<1 以表现可靠性的增长。最后给出一个应用实例。 |
| 关键词: 可靠性增长 任务周期Bayes方法 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿日期：1998-04-10 |
| 基金项目:国家九·五预研项目 |
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| A Reliability Growth Model for Complex System in Development Testing Program |
| Dang Xiaoling, Qin Shiqiao, Wu Xiaoyue, Sha Jichang |
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(Department of System Engineering and Mathematics, NUDT, Changsha, 410073)
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, we present a reliability growth model to describe the changes of failure rate at several stages of the development testing program. At stage k, Bayes method is used to get the failure rate of system, then the result is updated according to the duty cycle. The prior distribution of λk is developed to use the information of test 1to k-1. A growth factor ηk is introduced at each stage to show the reliability growth. A numerical example illustrates the use of the model. |
| Keywords: reliability growth, duty circle, bayesian methodology |
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