| 引用本文: | 杨华波,张士峰,蔡洪,等.利用构造性仿真评估导弹精度.[J].国防科技大学学报,2005,27(2):124-126 ,130.[点击复制] |
| YANG Huabo,ZHANG Shifeng,CAI Hong,et al.Evaluation of the Missile Precision by Using the Construction Simulation[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2005,27(2):124-126 ,130[点击复制] |
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| 利用构造性仿真评估导弹精度 |
| 杨华波1, 张士峰1, 蔡洪1, 岳耀民2 |
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(1.国防科技大学 航天与材料工程学院，湖南 长沙 410073;2.厦门卫星测控站，福建 厦门 361023)
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| 摘要: |
| 通过对导弹落点散布的构造性仿真获得了落点（均值与方差）的验前分布参数，通过与现场试验数据的相容性检验获得了验前信息的可信度，在考虑验前信息可信度的情况下获得了命中点的均值与方差的验后Bayes估计。算例表明该方法对于仿真信息的应用合理可信，考虑可信度下的Bayes估计具有较好的置信度。 |
| 关键词: 构造性仿真 精度 可信度 Bayes估计 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿日期：2004-11-29 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Evaluation of the Missile Precision by Using the Construction Simulation |
| YANG Huabo1, ZHANG Shifeng1, CAI Hong1, YUE Yaoming2 |
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(1.College of Aerospace and Materials Engineering, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China;2.Xiamen Satellite Control Station, Xiamen 361023，China)
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| Abstract: |
| The prior distribution parameters of the falling points are obtained by using the construction simulation, then the credibility of the prior information is acquired by consistent test. The bayesian estimations of the mean and variance of the falling points are obtained by considering the credibility of the prior information. An example validates that it is successful to use the simulation information, and Bayesian estimation on considering the credibility has a better confidence level. |
| Keywords: construction simulation precision confidence Bayesian estimation |
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