| 引用本文: | 朱云斌,黄晓明,常青.模糊故障树分析方法在机场环境安全中的应用.[J].国防科技大学学报,2009,31(6):126-131.[点击复制] |
| ZHU Yunbin,HUANG Xiaoming,CHANG Qing.Application of the Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method to Airport Environment Security[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2009,31(6):126-131[点击复制] |
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| 模糊故障树分析方法在机场环境安全中的应用 |
| 朱云斌1, 黄晓明1, 常青2 |
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(1.东南大学 交通学院，江苏 南京 210096;2.南京师范大学 生命科学学院，江苏 南京 210046)
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| 摘要: |
| 采用故障树分析法，对引起鸟击飞机的各个因素进行系统分析，并建立了故障树。通过定性分析，可得引起顶事件发生的2580个最小割集。采用专家判断和模糊集理论相结合的方法，评估故障树底事件发生概率的模糊性，并以“垃圾堆对鸟的吸引”这一底事件为例，计算出其模糊失效率。通过定量分析，计算出顶事件的发生概率为0.00241，同时可计算各底事件的重要度。 |
| 关键词: 机场环境安全 鸟击飞机 故障树分析 专家判断 模糊集 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿日期：2009-09-06 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(30770315) |
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| Application of the Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method to Airport Environment Security |
| ZHU Yunbin1, HUANG Xiaoming1, CHANG Qing2 |
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(1.School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China;2.College of Life Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China)
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| Abstract: |
| By means of fault tree analysis method, this paper gives a systemic analysis of the relevant factors which cause the fault of bird strike aircraft，and its fault tree is also established. Through qualitative analysis, 2580 minimum cut sets can be obtained. Expert estimation method, combined with fuzzy sets theory, is adopted to assess the happening probability of the base events. The calculating of “waste landfill attracting bird”—one of the base events of bird-strike-aircraft, is given as an example of this method. Through quantitative analysis, the happening probability of the top event is 0.00241, and the importance degree of all base events can be analyzed. |
| Keywords: airport environment security bird strike aircraft fault tree analysis expert estimation fuzzy set |
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