| 引用本文: | 邸彦强,李婷,冯少冲,等.装备寿命预测的平行仿真模型在线演化方法.[J].国防科技大学学报,2023,45(4):205-214.[点击复制] |
| DI Yanqiang,LI Ting,FENG Shaochong,et al.Online evolution method of parallel simulation model for equipment life prediction[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2023,45(4):205-214[点击复制] |
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| 装备寿命预测的平行仿真模型在线演化方法 |
| 邸彦强,李婷,冯少冲,刘琼瑶 |
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(陆军工程大学 石家庄校区, 河北 石家庄 050003)
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| 摘要: |
| 在面向装备剩余寿命预测的平行仿真技术研究基础上,统一了不同退化状态下的状态方程,提出了预测模型形态库的构建方法和预测模型形态选择算法,设计了“模型形态库构建—模型选择—数据同化—模型演化”的模型在线演化工作流程,运用扩展卡尔曼滤波和极大似然估计算法,实现了面向装备剩余寿命预测的平行仿真模型在线动态演化。通过仿真实验验证了模型形态选择算法和模型在线演化工作流程的有效性,取得了较好的仿真效果。 |
| 关键词: 平行仿真 预测模型库构建 参数演化 剩余寿命预测 |
| DOI：10.11887/j.cn.202304020 |
| 投稿日期：2022-03-15 |
| 基金项目:河北省自然科学基金资助项目(F2019506029) |
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| Online evolution method of parallel simulation model for equipment life prediction |
| DI Yanqiang, LI Ting, FENG Shaochong, LIU Qiongyao |
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(Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University, Shijiazhuang 050003, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the research of parallel simulation technology for equipment remaining life prediction, the state equations under different degradation states was unified, the construction method of prediction model library and the selection algorithm of predictive model morphological were proposed, and the online model evolution workflow of “model morphology library construction—model selection—data assimilation—model evolution” was designed. Using extended Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation algorithm, the online dynamic evolution of parallel simulation model for equipment remaining life prediction was realized. The effectiveness of the model morphology selection algorithm and the model online evolution workflow is verified by simulation experiments, and good simulation results are obtained. |
| Keywords: parallel simulation prediction model library construction parameter evolution remaining useful life prediction |
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