The enforceability probability of satellite observation requires timely and accurate estimation to provide the fundamental basis for satellite task planning and scheduling. An estimation model of the enforceability probability of satellite earth observation is established based on the Logistic regression method. Firstly, the influence factors of observation enforceability probability were analyzed, including the property of observation task, resources limitation, competitive relations among tasks, etc. Secondly, independent variables were extracted and their quantitative methods were given, then the Logistic regression model was established. Thirdly, experiments were implemented on the planning and scheduling system of satellite imaging observation to obtain the sample data of independent variables and planning results. Moreover, the sample data was analyzed by using the Logistic regression method, and then the variables and parameters of the model and the function forms were all determined, Lastly, the effectiveness of the model was validated.