Since the traditional capture probability model can not solve the problem of long-range anti-ship missile’s target capture calculation, a model was put forward to work out its maneuver acquisition probability by using search theory. The target distribution probability density function was established according to the target maneuvering rules. According to "inverted four times square law" of the terminal guidance radar target detection probability and missile target relative motion trajectory, the anti-ship missile’s detection function was constructed. The target acquisition probability could be calculated by the integral operation of their multiplication. The calculation results show that, if long-range anti-ship missiles do not take maneuver search strategy, acquisition probability decreases by 0.47 when target indication error increases 1km, acquisition probability decreases by 0.3 when target velocity increases 10 knot, and acquisition probability decreases by 0.3 when terminal guidance radar search radius reduced by 50%. If the antiship missile takes parallel search strategy, the impact of above factors on its acquisition probability has fallen dramatically. This method takes the following factors into account, such as target maneuver rules, sensor detection rules and missile acquisition strategy, and the maneuver acquisition probability of long-range anti-ship missile can be figured out accordingly.