Abstract:An important concept in equipment parallel simulation is the model evolution driven by realtime data, but there is still a lack of model evolution method for specific application areas. Against the background of remaining useful life prediction for hybrid degradation equipment with unknown discrete shock, the polymorphic Wiener state space model was regarded as the evolutionary object and a model dynamic evolution method of equipment parallel simulation was put forward, including the interactive multiple model strong tracking filtering based model soft switch and the expectation maximum algorithm based online estimation of model parameters. Furthermore, the parallel simulation based realtime prediction of equipment remaining useful life was realized. A case study was conducted by using a bearing degradation data. The results show that the method can effectively improve the simulation fidelity and the remaining useful life obtained by the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy and smaller uncertainty, implying a high practical engineering value.