Influence of forecasting wind intensity on rocket maximum aerodynamic load accuracy and modeling analysis
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(1. The PLA Unit 63729, Taiyuan 030027, China;2. The PLA Unit 61741, Beijing 100094, China;3. The PLA Unit 78127, Chengdu 610031, China;4. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China;5. Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau, Yinchuan 750011, China;6. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)

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V411.8

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    Abstract:

    In order to solve the problems of very few research literatures on the accuracy of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast value, the accuracy characteristics of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value were respectively analyzed on the basis of the actual wind in a certain area, and the multiple linear regression method was used to establish a revised model. The results show that within 1~11 days of forecasting days, the greater the forecast wind intensity, the higher the forecast wind accuracy and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value accuracy. Using the multiple linear regression method can improve the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast, and the smaller the forecast wind intensity, the more obvious the improvement of the forecast accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load. These findings have reference value in the flight assurance and safety decision-making of rocket launch.

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History
  • Received:September 10,2021
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: January 28,2024
  • Published: February 28,2024
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