预报风强度对火箭最大气动载荷精度影响及建模分析
2024,46(1):63-73
程胡华
中国人民解放军，397849854@qq.com
武帅
中国人民解放军
张入财
中国人民解放军7812
肖云清
中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室, 宁夏 银川 750002;
银川市气象局, 宁夏 银川 750011
赵亮
中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
中国人民解放军，397849854@qq.com
武帅
中国人民解放军
张入财
中国人民解放军7812
肖云清
中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室, 宁夏 银川 750002;
银川市气象局, 宁夏 银川 750011
赵亮
中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029
摘要：
针对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度的研究文献极少。以某地区实况风为基准,分别对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度特征进行了分析,并利用多元线性回归方法建立了订正模型,结果表明在预报日数第1～11天,预报风强度越大,预报风精度及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度越高；利用多元线性回归方法可提高最大气动载荷预报值精度,且预报风强度越小,最大气动载荷预报精度提高越明显。这些发现在火箭发射前的飞行保障及安全决策方面具有参考价值。
针对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度的研究文献极少。以某地区实况风为基准,分别对不同预报风强度的精度以及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度特征进行了分析,并利用多元线性回归方法建立了订正模型,结果表明在预报日数第1～11天,预报风强度越大,预报风精度及其对应的最大气动载荷预报值精度越高；利用多元线性回归方法可提高最大气动载荷预报值精度,且预报风强度越小,最大气动载荷预报精度提高越明显。这些发现在火箭发射前的飞行保障及安全决策方面具有参考价值。
基金项目：
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助项目(XDA20060501,XDA17010105)
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助项目(XDA20060501,XDA17010105)
Influence of forecasting wind intensity on rocket maximum aerodynamic load accuracy and modeling analysis
CHENG Huhua
The PLA Unit 63729, Taiyuan 030027, China,397849854@qq.com
WU Shuai
The PLA Unit 61741, Beijing 100094, China
ZHANG Rucai
The PLA Unit 78127, Chengdu 610031, China
XIAO Yunqing
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China;
Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau, Yinchuan 750011, China
ZHAO Liang
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
The PLA Unit 63729, Taiyuan 030027, China,397849854@qq.com
WU Shuai
The PLA Unit 61741, Beijing 100094, China
ZHANG Rucai
The PLA Unit 78127, Chengdu 610031, China
XIAO Yunqing
Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China;
Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau, Yinchuan 750011, China
ZHAO Liang
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Abstract：
In order to solve the problems of very few research literatures on the accuracy of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast value, the accuracy characteristics of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value were respectively analyzed on the basis of the actual wind in a certain area, and the multiple linear regression method was used to establish a revised model. The results show that within 1～11 days of forecasting days, the greater the forecast wind intensity, the higher the forecast wind accuracy and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value accuracy. Using the multiple linear regression method can improve the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast, and the smaller the forecast wind intensity, the more obvious the improvement of the forecast accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load. These findings have reference value in the flight assurance and safety decision-making of rocket launch.
In order to solve the problems of very few research literatures on the accuracy of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast value, the accuracy characteristics of different forecast wind intensity and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value were respectively analyzed on the basis of the actual wind in a certain area, and the multiple linear regression method was used to establish a revised model. The results show that within 1～11 days of forecasting days, the greater the forecast wind intensity, the higher the forecast wind accuracy and the corresponding maximum aerodynamic load forecast value accuracy. Using the multiple linear regression method can improve the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast, and the smaller the forecast wind intensity, the more obvious the improvement of the forecast accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load. These findings have reference value in the flight assurance and safety decision-making of rocket launch.
收稿日期：
2021-09-10
2021-09-10
