未确知条件下多枚导弹打击不规则面目标的毁伤效果评估
2024,46(3):213-221
王志辉
军事科学院 战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100091;
陆军炮兵防空兵学院南京校区, 江苏 南京 211132，zhwang66@foxmail.com
胡剑文
军事科学院 战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100091
朱晓敏
军事科学院 战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100091;
国防科技大学 系统工程学院, 湖南 长沙 410073
张亚军
陆军炮兵防空兵学院南京校区, 江苏 南京 211132
军事科学院 战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100091;
陆军炮兵防空兵学院南京校区, 江苏 南京 211132，zhwang66@foxmail.com
胡剑文
军事科学院 战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100091
朱晓敏
军事科学院 战略评估咨询中心, 北京 100091;
国防科技大学 系统工程学院, 湖南 长沙 410073
张亚军
陆军炮兵防空兵学院南京校区, 江苏 南京 211132
摘要：
在信息缺乏的情况下,如何提高对多枚导弹打击不规则面目标毁伤效果评估的可信度是导弹作战运用研究的重难点。通过蒙特卡罗方法建立给定参数下的面目标毁伤效果评估模型；采用信度分布函数对该问题的未确知性进行评估,评估结果显示毁伤效果未确知性较高；基于信度熵,分析导弹各个属性的未确知性对毁伤效果未确知性的影响；通过针对性减小影响大的属性的未确知性,迭代减小毁伤效果的未确知性。仿真实验结果表明面目标有效毁伤率的未确知范围得到显著减小。该研究能够有效指导毁伤效果评估工作,减小其中的不确定性。
在信息缺乏的情况下,如何提高对多枚导弹打击不规则面目标毁伤效果评估的可信度是导弹作战运用研究的重难点。通过蒙特卡罗方法建立给定参数下的面目标毁伤效果评估模型；采用信度分布函数对该问题的未确知性进行评估,评估结果显示毁伤效果未确知性较高；基于信度熵,分析导弹各个属性的未确知性对毁伤效果未确知性的影响；通过针对性减小影响大的属性的未确知性,迭代减小毁伤效果的未确知性。仿真实验结果表明面目标有效毁伤率的未确知范围得到显著减小。该研究能够有效指导毁伤效果评估工作,减小其中的不确定性。
基金项目：
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(61872378)
国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(61872378)
Evaluation of damage effect against irregular area target by multiple missiles under uncertainty
WANG Zhihui
Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;
Army Academy of Artillery and Air DefenseNanjing Campus, Nanjing 211132, China,zhwang66@foxmail.com
HU Jianwen
Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China
ZHU Xiaomin
Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;
College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
ZHANG Yajun
Army Academy of Artillery and Air DefenseNanjing Campus, Nanjing 211132, China
Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;
Army Academy of Artillery and Air DefenseNanjing Campus, Nanjing 211132, China,zhwang66@foxmail.com
HU Jianwen
Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China
ZHU Xiaomin
Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;
College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China
ZHANG Yajun
Army Academy of Artillery and Air DefenseNanjing Campus, Nanjing 211132, China
Abstract：
In the case of lack of information, how to improve the reliability of the evaluation of the damage effect of multiple missiles against irregular surface targets is a major difficulty in the research of missile operation. An evaluation model for the damage effect on area targets with given parameters was established using the Monte Carlo method. Belief degree distribution functions were employed to assess the uncertainties in the problem, and the assessment results showed a high level of uncertainty in the damage effect. Based on belief entropy, the influence of the uncertainty in each attribute of the missile on the uncertainty of the damage effect was analyzed. By specifically reducing the uncertainty of attributes with significant impact, the uncertainty of the damage effect was iteratively decreased. Simulation results show that the range of uncertainty for the effective damage rate of the area target is significantly reduced. This research can effectively guide the work of damage assessment and reduce its uncertainty.
In the case of lack of information, how to improve the reliability of the evaluation of the damage effect of multiple missiles against irregular surface targets is a major difficulty in the research of missile operation. An evaluation model for the damage effect on area targets with given parameters was established using the Monte Carlo method. Belief degree distribution functions were employed to assess the uncertainties in the problem, and the assessment results showed a high level of uncertainty in the damage effect. Based on belief entropy, the influence of the uncertainty in each attribute of the missile on the uncertainty of the damage effect was analyzed. By specifically reducing the uncertainty of attributes with significant impact, the uncertainty of the damage effect was iteratively decreased. Simulation results show that the range of uncertainty for the effective damage rate of the area target is significantly reduced. This research can effectively guide the work of damage assessment and reduce its uncertainty.
收稿日期：
2022-07-14
2022-07-14
