This research focuses on low-cost sounding rockets. A multi-disciplinary simulation model for sounding rockets is established based on various disciplinary simulation modules, enabling the simulation of rocket flight performance with multi-disciplinary coupling. An uncertainty propagation analysis method based on dynamic expansion sampling and surrogate models is proposed to address the uncertainty propagation issues related to the flight performance of the sounding rocket. An uncertainty deviation model for rocket flight performance is established based on physical analysis. The deviation parameters are dynamically sampled using the bounded augmented Latin hypercube design method, and deviation samples that satisfy the specified distribution are obtained through the inverse cumulative distribution transformation method. An improved expanded radial basis function model is employed for the approximate modeling of flight performance characteristic parameters, and an approximate prediction model for the flight performance characteristic parameters of sounding rockets is established by utilizing a minimal number of sample points. The flight performance characteristic parameters obtained from the proposed method are compared with those from the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results validate that the proposed method can achieve rapid and accurate statistical prediction of flight performance parameters by utilizing a minimal number of simulation samples under the specified distribution deviation model.