GCITEM模式对超低轨大气密度模拟性能评估:GOCE观测对比研究
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1.中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所 行星科学与前沿技术重点实验室;2.中国科学院大学 地球与行星科学学院;3.北京航空航天大学 空间与环境学院;4.空间环境监测与信息处理重点实验室 工业和信息化部

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P351

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中国科学院前瞻战略科技先导专项资助项目(XDA0470301);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFF0503900),中国气象局‘电离层预报和预警’青年创新团队(CMA2024QN09);风云卫星应用先行计划资助项目(FY-APP)


Evaluation of GCITEM’s performance in simulating VLEO atmospheric density : a comparative study with GOCE observations
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    摘要:

    空天过渡区大气密度的精确模拟对超低轨航天器的轨道预测与在轨安全至关重要。基于欧空局重力场与稳态洋流探测器卫星(gravity field and steady-state ocean circulation explorer,GOCE)卫星在超低轨(very low Earth orbit,VLEO)的高精度热层质量密度原位观测,系统评估国内自主研发的理论模式GCITEM对超低轨大气环境的模拟性能,并与热层经验模型NRLMSISE00进行对比。结果表明,地磁宁静时期GCITEM模式平均相对偏差近乎为零,有效消除了经验模型的系统性高估问题;扰动时期GCITEM模式预测不确定度更低,物理机制能更合理描述能量注入下的热层响应。GCITEM模式在全季节表现出良好的稳健性与适应能力,秋季误差尤其小。结果证实了GCITEM模式模拟超低轨热层密度性能优越,凸显了物理数值模式在高精度空间环境建模与航天工程应用的潜力。

    Abstract:

    Accurate simulation of atmospheric mass density in the aerospace transition region is crucial for the orbit prediction and the on-orbit safety of VLEO (very low Earth orbit) spacecraft. Based on the high-resolution in-situ thermospheric mass density obtained by the European Space Agency's GOCE(gravity field and steady-state ocean circulation explore) satellite in the VLEO region, a systematic evaluation of the GCITEM model, an theoretical model independently developed in China, was carried out for VLEO atmospheric environment, and compared it with the empirical thermospheric model (NRLMSISE00). The results show that under geomagnetically quiet conditions, the GCITEM model exhibits a mean relative bias close to zero, effectively eliminating the systematic overestimation in the empirical model. During geomagnetically disturbed periods, GCITEM demonstrates lower prediction uncertainty, and its physical mechanisms more reasonably capture the thermospheric response to energy inputs. GCITEM maintains the robust and adaptive performance across all seasons, with the smallest simulation error in autumn. The results confirm the superior performance of the GCITEM model in simulating VLEO thermospheric density and highlights the potential of physics-based numerical models for high-precision space environment modeling and aerospace engineering applications.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-09
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-12
  • 录用日期:2026-03-13
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