| 引用本文: | 董豆豆,周经伦,冯静,等.基于概率风险的系统安全性分析.[J].国防科技大学学报,2005,27(1):98-101.[点击复制] |
| DONG Doudou,ZHOU Jinglun,FENG Jing,et al.The Analysis of System Safety Based on Probabilistic Risk[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2005,27(1):98-101[点击复制] |
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| 基于概率风险的系统安全性分析 |
| 董豆豆, 周经伦, 冯静, 龚时雨, 周忠宝 |
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(国防科技大学 人文与管理学院， 湖南 长沙 410073)
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| 摘要: |
| 为得到系统层次上的安全性概率风险，获得定量的安全性决策依据，设计了基于概率风险的系统安全性分析方法，该方法将系统按某种标准划分成相应子系统，统计得到各子系统所有的危险源，建立相应的因果链，通过一定法则得到基于系统层次的概率风险，同时还讨论了设计方法中概率风险计算的难点问题。 |
| 关键词: 安全性 概率风险 危险源 因果链 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿日期：2004-08-29 |
| 基金项目:国家部委基金资助项目 |
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| The Analysis of System Safety Based on Probabilistic Risk |
| DONG Doudou, ZHOU Jinglun, FENG Jing, GONG Shiyu, ZHOU Zhongbao |
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(College of Humanities and Management, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)
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| Abstract: |
| In order to get the risk on the level of system and to obtain the quantitative decision reference of safety, this paper proposes an analytic method of system safety based on probabilistic risk. This method will divide the system into different subsystems according to some criterion, count the danger sources of all subsystems and build causality diagrams corresponding to danger sources, and at last compute the probabilistic risk on the level of system according to some rules. The difficult problem of computing the probabilistic risk by this method is discussed. |
| Keywords: safety probabilistic risk danger source causality chain |
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