| 引用本文: | 江振宇,张为华.战斗部虚拟试验贝叶斯线性校准预测方法.[J].国防科技大学学报,2007,29(6):14-18.[点击复制] |
| JIANG Zhenyu,ZHANG Weihua.Bayesian Linear Calibrated Prediction Approach in Warhead Virtual Experiment[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2007,29(6):14-18[点击复制] |
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| 战斗部虚拟试验贝叶斯线性校准预测方法 |
| 江振宇, 张为华 |
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(国防科技大学 航天与材料工程学院，湖南 长沙 410073)
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| 摘要: |
| 聚能装药战斗部射虚拟试验中，射流穿深对靶板材料模型参数较敏感。为建立较准确实用的射流穿深预测模型，提出一种贝叶斯线性校准方法，建立物理过程真实值、模型预测值和试验测量值间的统计关系，结合有限的试验数据，校准未知模型参数。实例分析表明，该方法可较好地解决包含各种不确定性的大型复杂计算模型的参数校准问题。 |
| 关键词: 校准 预测 不确定性 贝叶斯 战斗部 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿日期：2007-04-15 |
| 基金项目:国防科工委基础科研资助项目(B0920060321) |
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| Bayesian Linear Calibrated Prediction Approach in Warhead Virtual Experiment |
| JIANG Zhenyu, ZHANG Weihua |
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(College of Aerospace and Materials Engineering, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)
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| Abstract: |
| The shaped charge penetration performance is sensitive to material model parameters of armor plate in virtual experiment. A Bayesian linear calibrated approach was proposed to obtain precise prediction of penetration limit. Statistical relationship between the physical process, the computer model output and experiment observations was formulated, combined with calibration experiment observations, to estimate the unknown model parameter. Analysis of an example demonstrates that the proposed approach is efficient in large calibration problem involving various uncertainties. |
| Keywords: calibration prediction uncertainty Bayesian warhead |
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