| 引用本文: | 金光.小子样条件下航天轴承性能可靠性建模与评估.[J].国防科技大学学报,2010,32(1):133-137.[点击复制] |
| JIN Guang.Performance Reliability Modeling and Estimation for Space Bearing under Small Sample Circumstance[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2010,32(1):133-137[点击复制] |
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| 小子样条件下航天轴承性能可靠性建模与评估 |
| 金光 |
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(国防科技大学 信息系统与管理学院，湖南 长沙 410073)
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| 摘要: |
| 航天油润滑轴承可靠性具有小子样、无失效数据特点，即使采用性能可靠性方法进行建模与分析，仍存在性能数据不足问题。提出小子样条件下航天轴承性能可靠性分析的多层贝叶斯模型及模型求解方法。通过失效分析，建立轴承性能退化过程模型。利用自助法、试验数据、物理模型和专家经验等确定Bayes验前分布，并采用MCMC方法解决Bayes计算问题。实例分析表明，该方法具有较好的适用性，是解决小子样条件下长寿命产品可靠性建模与评估问题的一种有效途径。 |
| 关键词: 性能可靠性 小子样 贝叶斯方法 自助法 航天轴承 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿日期：2009-06-25 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Performance Reliability Modeling and Estimation for Space Bearing under Small Sample Circumstance |
| JIN Guang |
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(College of Information System and Management, National Univ. of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)
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| Abstract: |
| There are small sample and zero failure characteristics in space bearing reliability modeling and analysis. Although performance reliability method may be available, insufficient performance data are still impediments. In the paper, a hierarchy Bayes modeling and analysis method is presented to solve the difficulties under small sample circumstance. Based on failure mechanism analysis, a performance degradation model is built at first. Then multiple methods and information including bootstrap method, experiment data, physics model and expert experience are utilized to determine the Bayes prior distribution. The Bayes calculation problem is settled using MCMC method. Example analysis shows that the method provided in the paper is well applicable, and is an effective method solving reliability modeling and analysis problem of long life products under small sample condition. |
| Keywords: performance reliability small sample bayes method bootstrap method space bearing |
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