| 引用本文: | 王长春,陈俊良,陈 超.战争设计工程中专家思维收敛过程的建模与分析.[J].国防科技大学学报,2012,34(3):74-79.[点击复制] |
| WANG Changchun,CHEN Junliang,CHEN Chao.Modeling and analysis of the experts thought convergence in war design engineering[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2012,34(3):74-79[点击复制] |
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| 战争设计工程中专家思维收敛过程的建模与分析 |
| 王长春, 陈俊良, 陈 超 |
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(国防科学技术大学 信息系统工程重点实验室，湖南 长沙 410073)
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| 摘要: |
| 专家意见能否达成共识是战争设计工程中的一个关键问题。首先从复杂理论视角对专家思维过程的适应性、聚集性、非线性进行分析，接着将专家群体划分为两类并且运用马尔科夫转移矩阵对研讨过程建模，提出并证明了两类专家群体思维收敛的充分必要条件，得到群体思维收敛不仅与研讨过程中专家之间的关系影响矩阵有关，而且与专家的初始意见有关。最后通过计算机仿真进一步探索了群体思维收敛过程的影响因素。 |
| 关键词: 战争设计工程 关系矩阵 马尔科夫链 共识 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿日期：2011-09-25 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（71101149） |
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| Modeling and analysis of the experts thought convergence in war design engineering |
| WANG Changchun, CHEN Junliang, CHEN Chao |
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(Science and Technology on Information Systems Engineering Laboratory, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Expert’s opinion consensus is one of key problems in the War Design Engineering. Firstly, the characteristics of experts thought, such as adaptive, cluster and non-linear, are analyzed from the view of complex theory. According to their interactive relationship, experts are divided in to two categories, and the convergence process is modeled by Markov transmission matrix. Then, the necessary and sufficient conditions of reaching consensus for each category experts are presented and proved. It ends with the conclusion that the condition of experts thought convergence is not only relative to interactive relationship matrix, but also the primal opinion of expert. Finally, some propositions are verified by computer simulation. |
| Keywords: war design engineering relationship matrix Markov chain consensus |
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