| 引用本文: | 白焱,甘旭升,董鑫,等.集对分析和LS-SVM相结合的装备研制风险综合评价法.[J].国防科技大学学报,2016,38(6):173-179.[点击复制] |
| BAI Yan,GAN Xusheng,DONG Xin,et al.Weapon system development risk comprehensive assessment method with set pair analysis and LS-SVM[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2016,38(6):173-179[点击复制] |
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| 集对分析和LS-SVM相结合的装备研制风险综合评价法 |
| 白焱1, 甘旭升2, 董鑫2, 戴哲2 |
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(1.空军工程大学 防空反导学院， 陕西 西安 710051;2.空军工程大学 空管领航学院， 陕西 西安 710051)
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| 摘要: |
| 为有效降低或规避武器装备研制风险，确保装备研制项目的顺利推进，提出一种基于集对分析理论与最小二乘支持向量机方法的装备研制风险综合评价方法。根据武器装备研制特点，建立装备研制风险评价指标体系。在此基础上，引入集对分析理论中的联系度和集对概念构建训练样本和测试样本。利用样本对最小二乘支持向量机进行训练测试，得到装备研制风险的评价模型，并给出评价结果。案例分析表明，所提方法过程简便，定性定量结合，形式易于理解，评价结果也更加贴近实际，对于提升装备研制项目风险管理和决策水平，具有重要的实际意义。 |
| 关键词: 装备研制风险 综合评价 集对分析 联系度 支持向量机 |
| DOI：10.11887/j.cn.201606028 |
| 投稿日期：2015-11-10 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（61201336，41301490） |
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| Weapon system development risk comprehensive assessment method with set pair analysis and LS-SVM |
| BAI Yan1, GAN Xusheng2, DONG Xin2, DAI Zhe2 |
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(1. Air and Missile Defense College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi′an 710051, China;2. Air Traffic Control and Navigation College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi′an 710051, China)
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| Abstract: |
| To effectively reduce or hedge the development risk of weapon equipment for smooth project progress, a comprehensive assessment method based on SPA(set pair analysis) theory and LS-SVM (least square support vector machine) method was proposed for weapon equipment development. Firstly, according to the specific characteristics of weapon equipment development, the weapon equipment development risk assessment index system was established. Secondly, on the basis of this, the concept of connection degree and set pair in SPA theory was introduced to construct the training samples and test samples. Finally, through the obtained samples, LS SVM was trained and tested to get the assessment model and to produce the assessment result. An example analysis shows that the proposed method has many advantages in simple implement, combining the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, easy understanding. The assessment results are more close to the actual development. It has important practical significance to improve the risk management and decision making level of weapon equipment development project. |
| Keywords: weapon system development risk comprehensive assessment set pair analysis connection degree support vector machine |
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