| 引用本文: | 游翰霖,李孟军,姜江,等.核危机博弈冲突消解图模型分析.[J].国防科技大学学报,2017,39(2):193-198.[点击复制] |
| YOU Hanlin,LI Mengjun,JIANG Jiang,et al.Game analysis for nuclear crisis using the graph model for conflict resolution[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2017,39(2):193-198[点击复制] |
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| 核危机博弈冲突消解图模型分析 |
| 游翰霖, 李孟军, 姜江, 葛冰峰, 张雪婷, 徐建国 |
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(国防科技大学 信息系统与管理学院， 湖南 长沙 410073)
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| 摘要: |
| 核安全是国家安全体系的重要组成部分。针对博弈过程定量化分析方法的不足，调整冲突消解图模型分析方法并将其应用于核危机博弈分析。提出冲突消解图模型分析流程、相关定义和矩阵表示方法；以1969年爆发的中苏核危机为背景，基于历史数据构建核危机冲突模型，应用矩阵表示算法分析博弈状态演化过程；引入博弈政策和军事能力两类模型参数，调节参数进行博弈模型敏感性分析；应用联盟分析方法识别出可能存在的决策者联盟及其对国家关系演化的影响；根据模型数据分析结果，总结相关结论和决策参考。研究结果表明，冲突分析方法适用于核危机管控研究，采用与军事实力相匹配的策略在危机博弈演化中具有重要作用。 |
| 关键词: 核安全 冲突消解图模型 博弈分析 中苏核危机 |
| DOI：10.11887/j.cn.201702029 |
| 投稿日期：2015-09-29 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（71501182，71671186） |
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| Game analysis for nuclear crisis using the graph model for conflict resolution |
| YOU Hanlin, LI Mengjun, JIANG Jiang, GE Bingfeng, ZHANG Xueting, XU Jianguo |
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(College of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Nuclear security is an important part of national security. To deal with the lack of quantitative methodologies in the current researches, the GMCR（graph model for conflict resolution） was adjusted and applied to games analysis for nuclear crisis. Firstly, the analysis framework, the related definitions and the matrix representation approaches were proposed. Secondly, the conflict model was calibrated based on the history background of the Sino-Soviet nuclear crisis in 1969, and the evolution of game state was unveiled by using matrix analysis algorithms. Thirdly, two parameters of conflict model were introduced, namely game policy and military capability, and the sensitivity analysis for their influence to stability results was researched. Fourthly, coalition analysis methodologies were utilized to identify the potential alliances of decision makers and its impact on national relation evolution. Finally, relevant conclusions and decision suggestions of nuclear security were summarized based on the analysis results of the conflict model. Results show that the GMCR is suitable for investigating nuclear crisis and the strategy matching with military capability play a key role in game evolution. |
| Keywords: nuclear security graph model for conflict resolution game analysis Sino Soviet nuclear crisis |
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