| 引用本文: | 赵录峰,吕震宙,阚丽娟.随机-区间混合不确定性单输出模型确认指标.[J].国防科技大学学报,2018,40(3):168-175.[点击复制] |
| ZHAO Lufeng,LYU Zhenzhou,KAN Lijuan.Validation metric for single output models with stochastic and interval mixed uncertainty[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2018,40(3):168-175[点击复制] |
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| 随机-区间混合不确定性单输出模型确认指标 |
| 赵录峰1, 吕震宙1, 阚丽娟2 |
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(1. 西北工业大学 航空学院， 陕西 西安 710072;2. 空军工程大学 装备管理与安全工程学院， 陕西 西安 710051)
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| 摘要: |
| 针对既有随机变量又有区间变量的模型预测结果与实验数据之间的一致性度量问题，对随机-区间混合不确定性模型确认指标进行研究。根据工程数学模型和实验过程中的不确定性来源，分析随机-区间混合不确定性模型确认的特点；运用概率方法和区间理论，提出新的随机-区间混合不确定性模型确认指标，讨论所提指标的性质，给出指标的计算方法和步骤。通过数字算例和工程算例，验证了所提指标的可行性和有效性。 |
| 关键词: 模型确认 指标 随机变量 区间变量 不确定性 |
| DOI：10.11887/j.cn.201803026 |
| 投稿日期：2017-04-28 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51475370）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（3102015BJ（Ⅱ）CG009） |
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| Validation metric for single output models with stochastic and interval mixed uncertainty |
| ZHAO Lufeng1, LYU Zhenzhou1, KAN Lijuan2 |
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(1. School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi′an 710072, China;2. Equipment Management and Safety Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi′an 710051, China)
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| Abstract: |
| For the models with interval input variables and random input variables simultaneously, a validation metric was researched to measure the agreement between the quantitative predictions from an uncertain model and relevant empirical data. With respect to different sources of uncertainty existed in engineering mathematic models and experiments，the characteristic of the validation for models with stochastic and interval mixed uncertainty was analyzed. A new validation metric for model with stochastic and interval mixed uncertainty was proposed by using the interval theory and the probability method. The properties of the proposed validation metric were discussed, and its calculation method and procedures were presented. A numerical test case and an engineering example were used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed validation metric. |
| Keywords: model validation metric random variables interval variables uncertainty |
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