| 引用本文: | 袁修开,刘文杰.飞机结构疲劳可靠度贝叶斯组合预测.[J].国防科技大学学报,2018,40(4):100-105.[点击复制] |
| YUAN Xiukai,LIU Wenjie.Bayesian combination forecasting for fatigue reliability of aircraft structures[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2018,40(4):100-105[点击复制] |
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| 飞机结构疲劳可靠度贝叶斯组合预测 |
| 袁修开, 刘文杰 |
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(厦门大学 航空航天学院， 福建 厦门 361005)
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| 摘要: |
| 在实际工程中，常常需要利用模型去描述和分析问题。然而模型亦存在不确定性，即可能存在多个描述同一现象的模型，例如多个疲劳分析的模型。针对飞机结构的疲劳可靠性问题，提出在考虑三种裂纹扩展模型下基于贝叶斯公式的疲劳可靠度组合预测方法。针对不同应力水平下飞机结构试件的裂纹扩展数据建立了三种随机裂纹扩展模型；在考虑模型参数不确定性条件下，采用贝叶斯模型平均方法对三种模型进行组合；基于组合模型分析结构的可靠度。所提方法在分析飞机结构疲劳可靠度上，采用了组合模型，能够最大限度保障结果的稳定性。此外，考虑了模型参数的不确定性，能够得到更为合理的裂纹扩展预测分布和可靠度预测值。给出的实例及分析结果表明所提方法可行。 |
| 关键词: 飞机结构 疲劳可靠度 贝叶斯组合预测 模型不确定性 随机裂纹扩展 |
| DOI：10.11887/j.cn.201804016 |
| 投稿日期：2017-05-11 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（U1530122，51505398）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（20720180072） |
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| Bayesian combination forecasting for fatigue reliability of aircraft structures |
| YUAN Xiukai, LIU Wenjie |
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(School of Aerospace Engineering, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)
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| Abstract: |
| In practical engineering, it is often necessary to use models to describe and analyze problems. However, uncertainty exists in the models. There are many models that can describe the same phenomenon, such as the multiple fatigue analysis models. In order to solve the problem of fatigue reliability of aircraft structures, a combination forecasting method based on Bayesian model averaging was proposed by considering three kinds of crack propagation models. Three random crack propagation models were established by using the crack propagation data of aircraft structures under three stress levels. Considering the uncertainty of the model parameters, the Bayesian model averaging method was used to combine the three models. The reliability of the structure was analyzed based on the combined model. The combined model was used to analyze the fatigue reliability of aircraft structure, which can improve the robustness of the results. In addition, considering the uncertainty of the model parameters, more reasonable predictive distribution of crack propagation as well as the reliability can be obtained. Examples and analysis results are given to show the feasibility of this method. |
| Keywords: aircraft structures fatigue reliability Bayesian combination forecasting model uncertainty random crack propagation |
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