| 引用本文: | 崔利杰,陈浩然,任博,等.混合不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析方法.[J].国防科技大学学报,2020,42(2):92-97.[点击复制] |
| CUI Lijie,CHEN Haoran,REN Bo,et al.Quantitative analysis method of aviation unsafe events under mixed uncertain conditions[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2020,42(2):92-97[点击复制] |
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| 混合不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析方法 |
| 崔利杰,陈浩然,任博,张贾奎 |
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(空军工程大学 装备管理与无人机工程学院, 陕西 西安 710051)
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| 摘要: |
| 为解决不确定条件下航空不安全事件量化分析的难题,基于随机和模糊理论对影响飞行安全的主客观变量进行了混合不确定描述,将难以用概率表示的主观变量处理成为隶属度λ水平截集上服从均匀分布的随机变量。在此基础上,提出了混合不确定条件下航空安全指标和数值计算方法,所提指标和方法能够简洁、直观、准确地反映航空安全水平。通过航空安全领域普遍采用的Bow-tie模型对轮胎爆破事件安全性指标和隶属度关系进行仿真分析。结果表明: 将不确定变量控制在一定隶属度水平,能显著提高航空安全指标。 |
| 关键词: 航空安全 混合不确定性 Bow-tie模型 量化分析 模糊变量 |
| DOI：10.11887/j.cn.202002012 |
| 投稿日期：2018-10-08 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401174,71701210) |
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| Quantitative analysis method of aviation unsafe events under mixed uncertain conditions |
| CUI Lijie, CHEN Haoran, REN Bo, ZHANG Jiakui |
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(Equipment Management and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi′an 710051, China)
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| Abstract: |
| In order to solve the problem of quantitative analysis of aviation unsafe events under uncertain conditions, based on the random and fuzzy theory, a mixed uncertain description of the subjective and objective variables that affect flight safety was proposed. To describe the subjective variables which were hard to be expressed by probability, the random variables that follow a uniform distribution in the λ-cut set of membership were introduced. Then, an aviation safety index and a numerical computational method under mixed uncertain conditions were proposed, which can reflect the aviation safety level concisely, intuitively and accurately. Through the Bow-tie model which is commonly used in the field of aviation safety, the relationship of the safety index and the membership of tire burst accident was obtained by simulation analysis. The quantitative results show that the aviation safety indices can be significantly improved with proper control of the membership degree. |
| Keywords: aviation safety mixed uncertainty Bow-tie model quantitative analysis fuzzy variable |
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