| 引用本文: | 王泽洲,陈云翔,蔡忠义,等.不确定失效阈值影响下考虑设备剩余寿命预测信息的最优替换策略.[J].国防科技大学学报,2021,43(1):145-154.[点击复制] |
| WANG Zezhou,CHEN Yunxiang,CAI Zhongyi,et al.Optimal replacement strategy considering equipment remaining useful lifetime prediction information under the influence of uncertain failure threshold[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2021,43(1):145-154[点击复制] |
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| 不确定失效阈值影响下考虑设备剩余寿命预测信息的最优替换策略 |
| 王泽洲1,2,陈云翔1,蔡忠义1,王莉莉1,项华春1 |
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(1. 空军工程大学 装备管理与无人机工程学院, 陕西 西安 710051;2. 中国人民解放军93920.部队, 陕西 汉中 723200)
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| 摘要: |
| 为了进一步提升设备维修决策的科学性,通过建立综合设备剩余寿命预测数据与不确定失效阈值的最优维修决策模型,实现了不可维修设备的最优替换策略。构建基于非线性Wiener过程的设备性能退化模型,并采用极大似然法估计退化模型参数；提出一种基于期望最大(Expectation Maximization, EM)算法的不确定失效阈值分布系数估计方法,通过引入虚拟失效阈值数据实现对失效阈值分布系数的同步迭代更新；基于首达时的概念推导出不确定失效阈值条件下设备剩余寿命的概率密度函数,并基于更新报酬理论建立维修决策模型,从而实现设备的最优维修决策。算例分析表明,设备的失效阈值会对维修决策结果产生重要影响,考虑设备失效阈值的不确定性既有助于提升剩余寿命预测的准确性,又可以有效降低设备的寿命周期费用。 |
| 关键词: 维修决策 更新报酬理论 剩余寿命预测 不确定失效阈值 EM算法 |
| DOI：10.11887/j.cn.202101019 |
| 投稿日期：2019-06-24 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(71901216)；中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2017M623415) |
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| Optimal replacement strategy considering equipment remaining useful lifetime prediction information under the influence of uncertain failure threshold |
| WANG Zezhou1,2, CHEN Yunxiang1, CAI Zhongyi1, WANG Lili1, XIANG Huachun1 |
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(1. Equipment Management & UAV Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi′an 710051, China;The PLA Unit 93920, Hanzhong 723200, China)
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| Abstract: |
| To improve the scientificalness of equipment maintenance decision-making, an optimal replacement strategy of non-repairable equipment was realized by establishing the optimal maintenance decision model of integrated equipment RUL(remaining useful lifetime) prediction data and uncertain failure threshold. The nonlinear Wiener process was used to establish the degradation model of the equipment and the maximum likelihood estimation was used to determine the parameter estimation of the degradation model. A new estimation method for the distribution coefficient of uncertainty failure threshold based on the EM(expectation maximization) algorithm was proposed. By introducing the virtual failure threshold data, the synchronous iterative update of the distribution coefficient for failure threshold was realized. Based on the concept of the first hitting time, the RUL probability density function of equipment with considering the uncertain failure threshold was derived. The decision model was built on the basis of the renewal-reward theory to determine the optimal replacement occasion. The example analysis shows that the failure threshold of the equipment has an important impact on the result of the maintenance decision. This conclusion fully takes into consideration of the fact that the uncertainty of the equipment failure threshold can not only improve the accuracy of the RUL prediction but also can effectively reduce the life cycle cost of the equipment. |
| Keywords: maintenance decision renewal-reward theory remaining useful lifetime prediction uncertain failure threshold EM algorithm |
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