Evaluation of damage effect against irregular area target by multiple missiles under uncertainty
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(1. Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;2. Army Academy of Artillery and Air Defense(Nanjing Campus), Nanjing 211132, China;3. College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China)

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TB114.1

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    Abstract:

    In the case of lack of information, how to improve the reliability of the evaluation of the damage effect of multiple missiles against irregular surface targets is a major difficulty in the research of missile operation. An evaluation model for the damage effect on area targets with given parameters was established using the Monte Carlo method. Belief degree distribution functions were employed to assess the uncertainties in the problem, and the assessment results showed a high level of uncertainty in the damage effect. Based on belief entropy, the influence of the uncertainty in each attribute of the missile on the uncertainty of the damage effect was analyzed. By specifically reducing the uncertainty of attributes with significant impact, the uncertainty of the damage effect was iteratively decreased. Simulation results show that the range of uncertainty for the effective damage rate of the area target is significantly reduced. This research can effectively guide the work of damage assessment and reduce its uncertainty.

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WANG Zhihui, HU Jianwen, ZHU Xiaomin, ZHANG Yajun. Evaluation of damage effect against irregular area target by multiple missiles under uncertainty[J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2024,46(3):213-221.

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History
  • Received:July 14,2022
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 18,2024
  • Published: June 28,2024
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